California election review
What it means for the restaurant industry
With President-elect Barack Obama and strong Democratic majorities in Congress, policies coming out of Washington will be more left. The question is how much. The California Restaurant Association (CRA) defers to the National Restaurant Association for federal commentary; however it is important to note that while stances by an Obama Administration like immigration may be helpful to the restaurant industry, his stances overall may be more detrimental to the business community.
President-elect Obama turned some Republican-leaning states Democratic in a historic and impressive win and also helped push California even more Democratic.
Democrats Gain in the State Legislature
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California Assembly: Riding President-elect Obama’s coattails, California Democrats picked off three, and even possibly four, seats from Republicans; however Republicans gained one seat from Democrats. The race for Republican-held Assembly District 10 (Amador, southern El Dorado, and southern Sacramento counties) is still too close to call, but if Democrats pick up that seat, they could see a net gain of three seats in the Assembly.
California Senate: In the state Senate, Senate District 27 (Ventura and Santa Barbara counties), currently Republican, is still too close to call and Democrats may gain this seat. Democratic-candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson has a 108 vote lead over Republican Tony Strickland. This district is currently held by termed-out Republican Senator Tom McClintock, however this previous strong Republican seat has been trending Democratic and with the surge in registration and momentum. This seat a toss up that will likely go weeks before a winner is finalized. However, if Jackson is able to maintain her lead, Democrats would pick up a seat in the state Senate.
Democrats currently enjoy a large majority in both state houses, having 48 of 80 seats in the Assembly and 25 of 40 seats in the Senate. A potential three seat increase for Assembly Democrats would push their total to 51 seats, or only three seats short of a two-thirds majority. Similarly, in the state Senate, if Democrats are able to maintain their lead in SD-27 (Ventura and Santa Barbara counties), they will have 26 votes, only one vote short of a two-thirds majority. Two-thirds majority votes are critical because that is the vote level necessary to pass a budget or any tax increases.
For the restaurant industry, a more Democratic Legislature increases an already difficult legislative environment for business interests. The business community, including CRA, has been able to develop coalitions between Republicans and moderate Democrats to stop or advance key legislation affecting the industry. However, the majorities that Democrats now enjoy make that coalition harder to form as it is much more difficult to find 10 or 11 Assembly Democrats willing to cross party lines in the Assembly. Similarly, in the Senate, one more vote could be the difference between approval or not for many of these bills. In other words, stopping issues such as mandatory paid sick leave, employer-funded healthcare, or even preventing tax increases becomes more difficult.
The silver lining is that there are 25 new faces in the Assembly and a few of them have moderate credentials at the local level which bodes well for a more moderate Assembly. While there are no new faces coming into the Senate (all new Senators have previously served in the Assembly), it appears the number of moderate Democrats will stay the same at five members as moderate Democratic Senator Mike Machado (D-Stockton) is replace by a liberal Democrat, but moderate Senator-Elect Rod Wright (D-Los Angeles) is coming in, replacing a solid liberal vote in the Los Angeles area.
Click here for the complete state election results.
Showdown in 2010
This election has set a showdown in the Legislature in 2010. With Democrats so near a two-thirds majority now, it is not inconceivable for Democrats, especially in the Senate, to get to that magical number. Also, some experts expect Democrats to take the Governorship that year as well.
Propositions
Proposition 11, the redistricting initiative, was approved by voters with 50.6 percent of Californians in support. This was the Governor’s second attempt to take the power from the Legislature to draw their own Legislative boundaries and give it to a citizen’s commission. Set to kick in after the 2010 census, this Proposition could significantly change the makeup of the Legislature in 2012.
Proposition 2, the initiative establishing certain requirements for treatment of certain farm animals passed soundly with 63.2 percent of the vote. The CRA opposed the initiative as it would cause a decrease in food safety as it relates to instances of food-borne illness in California-produced eggs.
Click here for the complete state election results on the propositions.
